Excess Non-Covid Deaths Top 10,000 in Last 12 Weeks – But Government Refuses to Investigate Why

There have been 10,153 excess non-Covid deaths registered in England and Wales in the 12 weeks since April 23rd, the latest official data from the Office for National Statistics show.

In the week ending July 15th, 10,515 deaths were registered in England and Wales, which is 1,113 (11.2%) above the five-year average for the week. Of these, 585 mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate as a contributory cause and 382 mentioned COVID-19 as underlying cause, leaving 731 deaths from a different underlying cause.

At the Daily Sceptic, we are tracking deaths by date of occurrence and comparing them with the rollout of spring Covid vaccine boosters in England in the over-75s, as there appears to be a correlation. This week, deaths rose again in the most recent week, but a similar pattern seen last week has disappeared owing to the clearing of a backlog for June. This suggests deaths by date of occurrence may take a few weeks to settle down. Deaths by date of registration rose again this week, meaning no sustained downward trend is yet apparent. The cause of the spike in non-Covid excess deaths in mid-June remains unclear (these are deaths by date of occurrence so it isn’t a registration artefact).

Here is the cumulative curve of excess non-Covid deaths by date of registration along with the cumulative total of spring boosters.

As noted last week, the cause of the deaths appears to be largely related to diseases of the heart and blood vessels. Cancer deaths are, perhaps surprisingly given the withdrawal of healthcare access during the pandemic, broadly at normal levels, suggesting there is something other than lack of access to healthcare going on. The continued excess is unexpected as, following the 141,000 excess deaths of the last two and a half years, we would have expected a period of lower than average deaths.

The need for the Government to investigate what lies behind the more than 10,000 additional deaths in just three months remains urgent. However, the Government has shown no interest in doing so.

Esther McVey MP, Chair of the Pandemic Response and Recovery All-Party Parliamentary Group (APPG), submitted a written question asking the Cabinet Office what steps it was taking “to investigate the higher than expected rate of deaths of 12.2% above the five-year average”. The Government gave no answer itself and referred the matter to the U.K. Statistics Authority, which replied:

As well as releasing the Deaths Registered Weekly in England and Wales statistical bulletin, we publish Monthly Mortality Analysis. This release looks at deaths in more detail, for example, what causes are above the five-year average and are contributing to the excess. We also publish reports on excess mortality specifically, the last release provided analysis up to December 20214. We will be updating this over the coming months to include analysis of the current period of excess mortality.

Over 10,000 additional people dead from mostly cardiovascular causes in three months, and the Government has no interest in investigating why beyond publishing statistics on it?