A top Democratic advisor in Arizona explained why newly-Independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema left the Democratic party, and why the move may backfire in 2024.

In a Twitter thread Friday, Tony Cani, who previously worked as President Joe Biden’s Arizona Deputy Campaign Director in 2020, explained that Sinema has a severe crisis of dissatisfaction among Democrats of all ideological stripes. He also pointed to recent polling, which points to a potential disaster for the first-term Senator in a 2024 primary.

“I’ve seen polling (recent polling even),” Cani wrote on Twitter. “Sinema gets crushed in a primary by any dem. Dissatisfaction w/ the way she operates is not a left-wing thing. Dems of all ages & ideologies are frustrated with the way she operates, plus the vast majority of Rs will vote for an R nominee. Ds across the spectrum dislike the way Sinema operates so much that she gets no credit for passing widely popular legislation. Her significant legislative wins this session has not improved her standing even a little. Voters have made up their minds about her & have not budged.”

Recent polling has indeed shown that Sinema is in a serious hole with Arizona voters. An AARP poll conducted in September found that Sinema has just a 37% approval rating, with just 37% of Democrats approving of her job performance. That was eight points less than President Joe Biden’s overall approval of 45%, and far behind his 90% approval rating among Democrats.

Meanwhile, a poll from Data for Progress conducted in January showed that Sinema could face a blowout loss in a primary; progressive Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego trounces her 74%-16% in a hypothetical matchup, and Tuscon mayor Regina Romero defeats her 68%-17%. That poll showed Sinema’s approval rating at an abysmal 19% among Democratic primary voters, with a 76% disapproval rating.

“One of the challenges Sinema has is she is very memorable,” Cani continued. “So dissatisfaction is not limited to twitter and party insiders and the hyper involved. Average voters know her & now know they don’t like her. Or rather, don’t like her brand. It’s near impossible to break out of that. Her base in 2022 is extremely narrow. Like corporate lobbyists only narrow. And that’s it.”

Cani also dismissed comparisons with the late Republican Senator John McCain, who had a well-established reputation as a “maverick.” Cani pointed out that McCain struggled with dissatisfaction from the Republican base, but had served in the Senate for decades and was still popular with independents, allowing him to overcome challenges from the right.

Sinema, meanwhile, is only in her first term, and her struggles are across the board. He also said comparisons to former Senator Jeff Flake were inaccurate, because Flake was not as well known. “I think this is a pretty unique situation where voters soured on someone they used to really like,” he said of Sinema. “A total brand trust collapse.”

“Maybe she pulls this off,” he concluded. “I mean, she hasn’t lost an election since she ran for state leg. as a Green Party candidate in 2002. And she is having a historic legislative session. And you can’t underestimate how smart Sinema is. But the reelection math folks! It doesn’t look good!”