Government Planning an October ‘Firebreak’ if Hospital Admissions Remain at Current Level

The Government has drawn up plans for an October ‘firebreak’ if hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior Government scientist has said. The odd thing about this statement is that at present hospitalisations are a fraction of what they were at the beginning of the year (see above). The i has more.

The member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) said the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of pushing the NHS beyond breaking point and could force the Government to re-introduce restrictions over the school half term period at the end of next month.

A full lockdown is unlikely and would be a last resort, but there are a range of measures the government could introduce.

“This is essentially the precautionary break that SAGE suggested last year,” said the SAGE source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.”

The Government scientist added that while Covid deaths are significantly higher than at the same point 12 months ago, they would have to rise fivefold to match those experienced in late October last year.

“We are going to be at a peak, albeit an extended peak, quite soon, so it’s not really the same situation as last year, when failure to reduce prevalence would have resulted in collapse of NHS and people dying in car parks,” he added.

“Hospitals might be overflowing before deaths reach the same level. Acting early will prevent this level.”

It is understood that the Government’s contingency plan for a ‘firebreak’ lockdown could lead to an extension of the half-term, from one week for most schools to two weeks from late October into early November.

Worth reading in full.

The fact that the Government is already drawing up plans for a lockdown in October, albeit a mini one, gives the lie to the argument that the reason we should bring in vaccine passports and immunise children is to avoid another lockdown.

Stop Press: Depressingly, the public have already resigned themselves to another bout of school closures. According to the latest Ipsos MORI poll, 45% think it’s likely the Government will close schools again versus 26% who think it’s unlikely.