ONS Data Suggest a Vaccine Fatality Rate in the Over-75s of Up to One Every 275 Doses

The U.K. conducted a unique experiment beginning in late March and winding up in late August. All over-75s were offered a second ‘booster’ vaccination (fourth jab) and to date around 80% have taken up the offer.

In a previous article I highlighted the increased vulnerability of this age group to vaccine injury and predicted one excess death per 925 doses delivered for the spring booster campaign.

During the period from week 12 (week ending March 25th) to week 32 (week ending August 12th) approximately 4.4 million spring booster doses have been administered, which on that metric would work out as 4,750 excess deaths.

In fact, there has been a non-Covid excess mortality (NCEM) of around 16,200 deaths in the over-75 cohort during that period, equating to one excess death per 275 doses administered (see below for how this is calculated). This may be indicative of an increased vulnerability to each successive jab administered.

Looking at those under 75 during the same time period, there have been around 3,300 excess non-Covid deaths. Approximately 7.8 million vaccine doses (first, second or third doses) were administered to this group, equating to one death per 2,350 doses administered, a factor 8.5 times lower than for the over-75s.

NCEM rates were calculated using the weekly ONS data on mortality stratified by age (tab 2), subtracting from them deaths due to Covid stratified by age (tab 4) to get non-Covid mortality figures. Comparing with the pre-Covid five-year average mortality rates allows us to calculate the excess deaths and arrive at the NCEM.

When all this has been done we see there were 223,076 deaths in total, an excess of 22,992 compared to 2015-2019 averages (11.5% increase). There were 8,468 deaths due to Covid (where Covid was recorded as the underlying cause on the death certificate; 3.8% of total deaths) over this period, split 6,605 to 1,863 between the over-75s and the under 75s. This gives NCEM values of respectively 11,195 excess (8.3%) to 3,329 excess (5.1%).

There is however one further important factor to take into account for the over-75 cohort, and this is mortality displacement (MD). I made a reference to this in my first article on potential vaccine injury. Mortality displacement is the effect where a viral outbreak or other cause of elevated mortality results in many people dying earlier than they otherwise would have done. The result is fewer people are expected to die in the following months, a fact which needs to be taken into account when calculating excess deaths.

While mortality displacement applies to all ages, it has a negligible relevance to younger cohorts. The reason is that older people have much shorter remaining average lifespans than younger people, so all the mortality displacement occurs in a relatively short timeframe. The median age of deaths due to Covid has been around 83 throughout the pandemic, and for this age group the algorithm used to determine mortality displacement shows about a 9% displacement of the excess deaths each year for around four years before beginning to tail off. 

For those under 75 the mortality displacement is spread over many more years and there are anyway fewer excess deaths in comparison to the older cohort, since most of the excess deaths in the last two and a half years have resulted from Covid, which primarily killed the eldest part of the population.

As there have been around 150,000 excess deaths since the pandemic began, a mortality displacement of 9% per year results in an MD of just under 5,000 for a 21 week period, which must be added onto the NCEM for the over-75 cohort (as it effectively lowers the baseline by 5,000). This gives rise to the NCEM figure of 16,200 given above, equivalent to one excess death per 275 doses administered. It is 12% above the five-year average, compared to 5.1% for the under-75s, indicating that the excess deaths are concentrated in the over-75s, as would be expected if the spring vaccines were playing a major role.

Of course, these estimates of dose fatality rate are only accurate insofar as the large majority of recent NCEM deaths are from vaccine injury. There can be no proof of this short of an in-depth analysis of the vaccination status of every recent death (using actual date of vaccination). However, there is strong circumstantial evidence for widespread vaccine injury resulting from the spring booster campaign, namely the temporal association between the campaign and the wave of excess deaths. There may also be some excess deaths resulting from treatment neglect or other lockdown related issues, as has recently been suggested in the media, but in my view the vaccines are the prime suspect.

One reason for thinking we shouldn’t pin most of the deaths on denial of treatment are cancer deaths, which don’t fit the narrative. These are near normal or even lower than normal.

How can that fact be explained if the deaths are largely due to denial of healthcare during lockdown?