How coalitions will weaken the ANC

As the ANC falters in the years ahead, the South African landscape will be fundamentally changed. Election systems like that in South Africa, which use a system of proportional representation, are far more inclined to coalition governments.

The end of the one-party dominant system we have had since 1994 will force us to get used to the possible chaos and turmoil that can be part of coalition politics. As much as lessons might be drawn from Europe, India, Israel, and elsewhere, the art of coalition politics is difficult, as it involves trying to stabilise situations that are fundamentally unstable.

In time the biggest loser from coalitions will be the ANC. If it enters a coalition, it will mean fewer benefits, like ministerial posts, for those in the ANC. That means more fights for a smaller number of positions. Fewer rewards to hand out to party supporters means greater infighting and also a greater likelihood of defections of officeholders and supporters. New posts for a Minister of This and That or a Minister of Administrative Affairs might be created to reward party loyalists, but there is a limit to this in a government that already has one of the world’s largest Cabinets. 

Sensing weakness in a party that no longer rules alone and is not in control, voters will increasingly look for alternatives. Coalitions can only accelerate the party’s cycle of decline.

If the ANC falls under 50 percent at the next election, it will have to try and form a coalition. The more it falls under 50 percent of the vote, the more its coalition partners will demand in power and patronage for keeping it in power. And the greater the margin over 50 percent it seeks to build through coalitions, the more it will have to give away.

Precarious electoral position

Coalitions come in different shapes and sizes. Some are stable. Some are able to push through important reforms, like in India in the early 1990s when Big Bang changes put the country on a far higher growth trajectory. But many achieve little. In its increasingly precarious electoral position, the ANC will probably push even harder for Expropriation without Compensation, National Health Insurance, and more ambitious empowerment goals. It has had little coalition experience and is unlikely to defer to its partners.

The country’s coalition experience at national level is likely to go through a series of stages, as the role of the ANC declines. One scenario could see the ANC being part of a series of coalitions from 2024 onwards, but ultimately falling out of government. With ANC decline, new parties and independent candidates will increasingly be attracted into the fray.

Songezo Zibi, a former Business Day editor and advertising executive, and chair of The Rivonia Group, which seeks to generate new political ideas, has said he will launch a bid for the Presidency in 2024. It is unclear what his vehicle will be, but he could attract former ANC supporters who are disillusioned with the party’s corrupt and unprincipled direction. Over time it could be a vehicle for making inroads into ANC support.

Academic and former ANC activist Raymond Suttner has proposed that a wide variety of groups including trade unions, business, and community groups join up to “breathe down the necks” of governments and legislatures to ensure they adhere to constitutional mandates. He insists that such a group stay away from fighting elections. With such a mission it would be difficult for them to not ultimately be thrust into fighting elections.

Lead role

Let’s say at the next election in two years’ time the ANC gains 45 percent of the vote, the DA, 25 percent, the EFF, ten percent, and all the smaller parties together, 15 percent. That would still allow the ANC to play the lead role in forming a coalition, which it would easily be able to achieve, having to make up just over five percent.

So, what is possible with the above distribution of votes?

The DA has ruled out a coalition with the ANC or the EFF, but some of the smaller parties are bound to want a taste of power.

This could give rise to three possibilities: an ANC coalition with the EFF, an ANC coalition with smaller parties, or an ANC coalition with the EFF and some smaller parties.

It is an open question as to whether the Economic Freedom Fighters would join the ANC. After the local government elections last year, the EFF voted for the DA-led coalition to take control of the Johannesburg City Council, although it is not part of the coalition. The most credible explanation for this is that the EFF wanted to keep the ANC from controlling the council.

The EFF would be sure to extract the maximum out of the ANC for support in a coalition, and possibly use this as a means to attempt a reverse takeover of the party.

The big “what if”

Then there is the big “what if”. What if an ANC coalition partner suddenly withdraws its support for the ANC-led coalition government. Advocate Mark Oppenheimer, who specialises in constitutional law, says that the withdrawal of a coalition partner could lead to a vote of no-confidence in the government. If a new President fails to be elected by Parliament, the acting President would then have to declare a fresh national election within 30 days. The contingencies for this are covered in Sections 49 and 50 of the Constitution.

As strange as it may seem from the present viewpoint, where we have had the stability of one-party rule for nearly 30 years, frequent elections can be part of systems in which coalition governments tend to emerge.

An ANC in power and haemorrhaging support would not want an election, whereas its coalition partners and the opposition partners might see this as a chance to increase their support. Assuming the ANC support drops further in the ensuing election, but the party remains the largest, they could still form the anchor in a coalition.

What unfolds could validate the Centre for Risk Analysis’s scenario, under which the smaller party “wild dogs” take down the ANC buffalo.

With the ANC in decline, the parties that were in the coalition with the ANC could be heavily punished at the polls. The rationale of many voters for supporting parties other than the ANC is very often because they believe the ruling party has not delivered and is seen to be corrupt. Therefore, there has to be a high chance that parties that make deals with the ANC will be severely punished at the polls. 

Used to each other

The larger opposition parties might therefore just want to take chances on their own or form their own coalitions, forcing the ANC to appeal to the very small parties that sometimes disappear after an election. The DA, the Freedom Front, and the African Christian Democratic Party are now used to each other in local coalitions. The EFF might also seek its own alliances within the ANC and outside.

That is all speculation, but what is clear is that for the ANC, coalitions open a can of worms. For smaller parties coalition politics open up immense opportunities. 

[Image: https://pixabay.com/illustrations/coalition-parties-negotiation-3109520/]

The views of the writer are not necessarily the views of the Daily Friend or the IRR

If you like what you have just read, support the Daily Friend