Unsustainability of Biden’s Policy: No Iran Deal, No Crisis

Introduction

The Biden administration has made it clear that it wants to revive the Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). However, the administration has also made it clear that it will not lift sanctions on Iran until it returns to compliance with the JCPOA. This „no Iran deal, no crisis“ policy is unsustainable and risks further destabilizing the Middle East.

The Risks of the „No Iran Deal, No Crisis“ Policy

The „no Iran deal, no crisis“ policy is unsustainable for several reasons. First, it assumes that Iran will eventually return to compliance with the JCPOA if the United States maintains pressure on the country through sanctions. However, this assumption ignores the fact that Iran has already taken steps to violate the JCPOA, such as increasing its uranium enrichment levels and stockpiles. If Iran continues to violate the JCPOA, the United States will have to decide whether to continue imposing sanctions or take more aggressive action, such as military strikes.

Second, the „no Iran deal, no crisis“ policy risks further destabilizing the Middle East. Iran has already responded to the United States‘ maximum pressure campaign by increasing its support for proxy groups in the region, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. If the United States continues to impose sanctions on Iran without offering any incentives for the country to return to compliance with the JCPOA, Iran may respond by increasing its support for these groups even further. This could lead to more violence and instability in the region.

Third, the „no Iran deal, no crisis“ policy risks alienating U.S. allies in Europe and the Middle East. Many of these countries supported the JCPOA and have expressed a desire to see it revived. If the United States continues to impose sanctions on Iran without offering any incentives for the country to return to compliance with the JCPOA, these countries may begin to question the U.S. commitment to diplomacy and multilateralism. This could lead to a further erosion of U.S. influence in the region.

The Need for a New Approach

To avoid these risks, the Biden administration needs to adopt a new approach to Iran. This approach should include a combination of sanctions relief and diplomatic engagement. The United States should offer Iran some sanctions relief in exchange for its return to compliance with the JCPOA. This could include lifting some of the sanctions that were imposed by the Trump administration, such as those on Iranian oil exports.

In addition to sanctions relief, the United States should engage in diplomatic talks with Iran to address other issues of concern, such as Iran’s support for proxy groups in the region and its ballistic missile program. These talks could be conducted through the JCPOA’s dispute resolution mechanism or through separate channels.

Finally, the United States should work with its allies in Europe and the Middle East to build a coalition in support of its new approach to Iran. This coalition could include countries that were not party to the JCPOA, such as Saudi Arabia and Israel, as well as countries that were party to the agreement, such as France and Germany.

Conclusion

The „no Iran deal, no crisis“ policy is unsustainable and risks further destabilizing the Middle East. To avoid these risks, the Biden administration needs to adopt a new approach to Iran that includes a combination of sanctions relief and diplomatic engagement. By doing so, the United States can help to revive the JCPOA and reduce tensions in the region

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Biden’s ‘no Iran deal, no crisis’ policy is unsustainable

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Details to Biden’s ‘no Iran deal, no crisis’ policy is unsustainable